Raphaël Glucksmann, 46, an MEP for Place Publique, took 66.17 per cent in the first round of the social-democratic left’s primary, on 11 October. 79,613 votes. France 24 / AFP. Olivier Faure, first secretary of the PS, 14.46, 17,398. Ségolène Royal 7.62. Maurel 5.92. Guedj 5.83. 120,787 voters from 134,456 registered. There was no second round. DW, 18 October: how he takes Mélenchon’s young voters if he refuses to work with him.

He is not a Socialist Party member. He is Place Publique. The first time, France 24 writes, that the PS has no candidate from its own ranks for a presidential race. Hidalgo, 2022: 1.75 per cent. Harris Interactive, published the day after the win but conducted before it: Glucksmann 10–11, Mélenchon 18. The poll does not include any boost after the 11th. DW says so. It is not a runoff. It is an old table, one day out.

The primary’s question: where do you stand on Mélenchon. Faure wanted the door open to LFI. Glucksmann, the break. 66 per cent is also a vote on the line. Royal compared him to an intern wanting to run the firm. No government, no town hall. Leaving the Cantine de Belleville, someone threw flour. The attacker, unidentified. Glucksmann asked Mélenchon to condemn it. It is not proven that the person was LFI. LFI MP Delogu wrote, on X, about the taxi driver who would have to clean the car.

Ipsos, September: under-25s, Mélenchon 41, Le Pen 20. The young are split. Mélenchon, 75, is with the students, votes at 16, down with Parcoursup. Antoine Bristielle, Fondation Jean-Jaurès: LFI’s core, young, urban, educated, short of money; four in ten households under €2,000 net. Just under a third of the left wants a left victory more than a party. Almost half of that group, under 35. They would vote PS, Greens or LFI. They want redistribution and a government that acts. They prefer people who compromise.

In France, it is not the German pattern, young women to the left, young men to the right. Durovic, Mayer, Piolat: at the 2024 European and parliamentary votes, the gap did not hold. 2027 is another ballot. Glucksmann: a lower CSG on earned income, inheritances over €2 million, taxed more. Europe, yes. Mélenchon: the EU, a neoliberal institution. Ukraine: Glucksmann, support. Manon Aubry, LFI: military aid, but with a debate, no strikes deep into Russia, no weakening of France’s own defence. In 2024, LFI MPs voted against the Franco-Ukrainian security agreement.

Until April–May 2027, what remains is 66 per cent of 120,000, not 2.8 million as for Hollande in 2011. After that, what remains is whether 41 per cent of the under-25s moves to a man who is not in the PS. Between them, the flour in Belleville and a poll taken before the vote.

Image: DXR, Palais Bourbon, Paris, 2 April 2014, public domain, Wikimedia Commons. The photograph is of the Assembly, not the canteen in Belleville.

Sources consulted: France: Young voters blase about Glucksmann's Socialists — DW; Présidentielle: Glucksmann désigné dès le premier tour comme le candidat de la gauche sociale-démocrate — France 24 / AFP.