On Wednesday Quaest, commissioned by O Globo and TV Globo, published voting intention for Sunday’s runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro 45%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%. The margin is two points either way. The figures sit inside the error band. A technical tie, not a settled lead.

The poll ran 2,154 interviews between 17 and 20 October, after Sunday’s Band debate. In last week’s round Flávio stood at 46%, Lula still at 44%. The Justiça Eleitoral register is BR-08535/2026, at 95% confidence. Felipe Nunes, Quaest’s chief, said that in the unprompted vote the undecided share rose from 7% to 14% in a week. Valor put prompted undecideds at 2%, with 9% blank, spoiled or staying home. Two clocks. Do not mix them.

On Friday TV Globo, from Rio de Janeiro, from 21.20, hosts the last head-to-head before the runoff. GloboNews listed three blocks: the five regions, topics the candidates choose, then a free round. The slot still stands. That is not a walk-out.

On Tuesday, in Juazeiro, Bahia, Lula tied his appearance to a paper by which Flávio lifts bank, tax and phone secrecy. He said that without the document the president cannot debate a thief. That is his charge. It is not a conviction. Lula’s lawyers asked the Superior Electoral Court to lift the same secrets for him and his family, for eight years, on reciprocity. The reply deadline was Wednesday. A request, not a ruling.

The PL campaign refused, according to Túlio Amâncio’s SBT News column. They called the offer a trap. After Band, Flávio said his accounts were already open and everything was declared to the tax office. Campaign conditions, not a withdrawal from the debate.

Dump La Tercera. The rewrite rests on La Tercera and Valor Econômico.

Image: Palácio do Planalto, Brasília, 29 October 2020, Dasfour2022, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons. The federal government seat, not the TV Globo studio.

Sources consulted: Quaest: Flávio Bolsonaro tem 45% e Lula, 44% — Valor Econômico.