Bloomberg, 18 October, via Zhitong/Bitget: traders are wary of the copper rally, with no sign of tariffs. Since Trump returned to the White House, the price has risen on fear he would tax the metal. Stocks have moved toward the United States. Outside, they have thinned. Last month, the LME near $15,000 a tonne, a record, in the telling. The second term is about halfway. If the tariff does not come, some say, the price falls. If it does, it rises. That is not today’s print. It is an argument.

Until a few weeks ago, Comex in New York sat above the LME. Anyone shipping copper into the US ahead of a duty was making money. The spread has collapsed. Reuters, last month: the tariff plan, set aside, over inflation fears. The spread fell harder after that. Marc Bailey of Sucden, in London: sentiment has shifted; people are dipping a toe back into the arbitrage. Until recently almost nobody was selling Comex and buying LME, for fear of losses if the tariff still arrived.

Macquarie’s Alice Fox: she has never seen a price that hangs on one person’s decision. Without a tariff, the bank talks of $10,000 a tonne. With a tariff announced and a shipping window, $18,000. Natixis: the tariff bubble, if the duty is taken off the table, bursts. Those are scenarios. Not an exchange print. Helen Amos at BMO: they may have thought the hoarding was over; but what if they decide it lasts another two years?

Kpler: as the spread fell, cargoes from Africa toward the US have dwindled. The fear remains: an announcement after the November elections, before the ship arrives. Alastair Munro at Marex: more appetite to sell New York and buy London, as the contract enters the delivery month and the arbitrage tightens. September, more than $600 a tonne down before delivery; the Comex premium, under $4 at the close, in the account.

Last July Trump put 50 per cent on downstream copper products, not on the metal traded on futures. Comex fell, but kept a premium, because the door stayed open. The market, Bloomberg says, is polarised. Almost nobody expects him to close the duty for good: the stocks at US ports would spill back onto the world market. One theory: the silence is “strategic ambiguity”. Others: 1 January, on last year’s Commerce recommendation. Commerce: 15 per cent from 2027, 30 from 2028, in stages. A recommendation, not a law.

LME Week, in London. Energy up, rates, a weak stock market: demand, in the market’s telling. The door sign, 2009, is not Sunday’s ring. Who is right, Trump or Macquarie, shows after November. It is not a trade tip.

Image: Kreepin Deth, LME sign, 14 October 2009, CC BY 3.0, Wikimedia Commons. The 2009 door, not this week’s ring.

Sources consulted: Traders Grow Wary of Copper Bull Market With No Sign of Tariffs — Bloomberg; Copper price forecasts lifted for 2026 but tariff “collapse” still on the table — MINING.COM.