Three national polls put Donald Trump’s approval, in October 2026, at 33, 34 and 36 per cent. Axios laid them together on Sunday, 18 October: Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos, NBC News and Fox News. Democrats lead the congressional ballot by 8, 9 and 10 points among registered voters. This is not a sanctions package and not a Lindsey Graham story. It is a split in the GOP, with the midterms ahead.

Fox, in the field from 9 to 12 October among 1,202 voters, margin plus or minus 2.5 points, finds 95% approval among self-described MAGA Republicans and 47% among the rest. Newsweek notes that in September non-MAGA Republicans were still net positive, 53–46. In October they flipped to 47–52. Across all Republicans, Fox and NBC have 76%; the Post has 79%.

The economy, once a strength, is now the weak point. Only 21% approve of Trump’s handling of the cost of living in the Post; 27% in NBC’s poll; 22% approve of his handling of inflation in Fox’s. The Post finds 75% of MAGA Republicans “certain to vote” or already voted, against 57% of non-MAGA Republicans. Thirty-seven per cent of Republicans and leaners want a different direction from Trump, a high in that series.

Axios cites a Reuters review: in 41 of 62 competitive House races the Republican has broken with a Trump policy or played down the tie. At least a dozen have taken his photo or endorsement off their sites. The White House, through Davis Ingle, said the president is “the unequivocal leader” and wants Republican majorities. Some candidates, including Byron Donalds, still keep the endorsement in view.

A Politico poll, in the same piece, says 26% of 2024 Trump voters think Republicans would be better off breaking with him. Brittany Martinez, of Principles First, told Axios that strategic distancing, not only campaign distancing, “speaks volumes”. It is not a conviction and not a November result.

Anyone who reduces the numbers to “95% MAGA” ignores the half of the party that sits at 47. Anyone who reduces them to “Trump is finished” ignores 76% inside the GOP and MAGA turnout. The three pollsters do not match on the decimals; they match on direction: low nationally, split inside.

Image: Sergiy Galyonkin, the US Capitol at blue hour, CC BY-SA 2.0, Wikimedia Commons; archive building, not a poll shop in October 2026.

Sources consulted: Trump approval rating hits lows in Fox, NBC, Washington Post midterm polls - Axios; Trump's Approval Rating Flips With Non-MAGA Republicans - Newsweek.