On 12 October Sinan Selen spoke as head of the BfV, Germany’s domestic intelligence service. Russia’s covert attacks on Germany and other European countries, he said, are not an episode. They are a long-term hybrid assault. Even if the war in Ukraine were to stop, the threat would not disappear. For Moscow this is about redrawing the map of Europe and Russia’s place in politics. The aggression, he added, would still be felt in Ukraine, in the Baltic states, in Poland and in Germany. DW put the question on 17 October: how great is the threat. Selen’s answer is not a figure. It is a duration.

Alexander Dobrindt, the interior minister: the country is not at war, but it is the daily target of hybrid warfare. The aim, in his reading, is not Germany’s military defeat. It is political and social subjugation. Carlo Masala, last year, on Maischberger: Russia is preparing for a major war, not only a cyber one. Carsten Breuer, the Bundeswehr’s inspector general, agreed. Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary general: there is no immediate military threat to Alliance territory. Germany’s Defence Ministry and European services, DW reports, still see, by 2029, the people and kit for a conventional war against NATO. Russia’s defence industry is running at full tilt. Moscow wants 1.5 million soldiers.

Stefan Meister, at DGAP: he does not think Russia wants a direct military conflict with NATO now. It wants to test the Alliance and display its capabilities. In August, an explosives-laden drone, aimed at a Ukrainian transport aircraft, at Leipzig-Halle. The German government said it was certain Russia was behind it. Moscow denied that. Sergey Lavrov spoke of “the beginning of a real war”. Immediate escalation, no. Nico Lange told DW the explosives did not detonate by coincidence, not because of German defences. Germany, in his reading, is a primary target: the key to European decisions, leading on support for Ukraine.

Meister also puts the accident risk: shooting down an aircraft you were trying to intimidate would trigger a response. He does not think Moscow is aiming for direct war now. It is aiming for provocations, polarisation, uncertainty. The AfD and BSW want better relations with Russia, a return of energy supplies, an end to support for Ukraine. Tino Chrupalla, early September: people are fed up with escalation and with billions “squandered”. The message has landed, especially in the east. The AfD gained in all three state elections in September. In Saxony-Anhalt it came first by a distance and could even form a government, which would be, DW writes, the first time since 1945. That is not a government. It is a possibility, said as such.

Roderich Kiesewetter, of the CDU: spending on schools and infrastructure holds if there is peace and security. Anyone who thinks cutting aid to Ukraine leaves money for social programmes is either badly mistaken or making themselves a tool. The Bundeswehr is accelerating rearmament. Recruits are few. Young people are in the street against a return of conscription. Boris Pistorius, of the SPD, said Germany must become capable of waging war. Inside the party, some found the phrase too militaristic. Meister: prepared militarily, in the civilian sector, mentally — not at all. Decades of pacifism, a comfort zone, limited resilience.

Friedrich Merz holds the line: Ukraine remains supported, it is Germany’s security. He was in Kyiv again, with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, among the destruction. Meister sees, in the coming months, more Leipzig-type attacks, drones, infrastructure, perhaps people in the military-industrial complex. That is the concrete danger, not a landing. Between the 2029 figure and the August drone sits a country that is not at war and is still not outside it.

Image: Jörg Braukmann, west facade of the Reichstag, Berlin, 2 August 2021, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons. The photograph is of the parliament building, not of an attack.

Sources consulted: How great is the Russian threat against Germany? — Deutsche Welle; Opening statement by BfV President Sinan Selen — Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz.