On Wednesday, 21 October 2026, the UN Environment Programme published Emissions Gap Report 2026, “The Point of Return”. A report, not a conference. UNEP: the chance of holding warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels with no or limited overshoot “is now gone”. That is the report’s finding, not a thermometer reading today.

The “lowest possible” overshoot path: a peak around mid-century of 1.7–1.8°C, then a return to 1.5°C or below by 2100, with about a 50 percent chance. Cuts against 2025: 18 percent by 2030, 45 by 2035, 69 by 2040. Nearly 6 percent a year from 2025 to 2035. A pathway, not a law.

Current policies: 2.8°C this century, and the rise would not stop there. Nationally determined contributions delivered in full: 2.6°C. With net-zero pledges too: 2.1°C. Three clocks. Even 2.1 is not 1.5. Against last year, UNEP says, it is worse: the United States leaving the accord, and revised historical emissions. New NDCs since the last report have barely moved.

António Guterres: “Overshoot is not surrender.” Inger Andersen: every fraction of a degree and every year above 1.5°C raises the risks. Anne Olhoff, of the UNEP-Copenhagen Climate Centre: cuts were postponed for decades; Paris is still reachable only if the most ambitious targets are surpassed, not merely met.

For the lowest path: triple renewables by 2035, coal’s share of energy supply down by more than half, methane down 25 percent against 2025. UN News: coal, oil and gas in total energy supply down by at least 55, 15 and 5 percent by 2035. Report benchmarks, not a Wednesday vote. CDR: about 320 gigatonnes by the end of the century. UNEP: not a substitute for cuts; the technology is costly and unproven at scale.

Global emissions rose 0.8 percent a year on average over the past decade. 2025 is about level with 2024; it is too early to say they have peaked. Fossil CO₂ rose in 2025; methane held still. The report counts 63 structural changes that have cut emissions. Solar grew seven times faster than expected. Dump The Straits Times. The rewrite rests on UN News and UNEP. COP31, next month, is another calendar.

Image: UN-Habitat offices, UN campus in Nairobi, 26 May 2019, Kip254, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons. The UN-Habitat building in 2019, not Wednesday’s report.

Sources consulted: Global warming will breach 1.5°C – but deep, fast cuts can still bring it back — UN News; As temperatures spike, this new report outlines humanity’s options for containing climate change — UNEP.